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Factfile - Economy

Regional Accounts 2003

4.  Core Regional Analysis

4.1     Introduction

4.1.1        This chapter presents the main findings from the balanced 2003 SAM, highlighting changes that have taken place in the Western Isles since the previous 1997 regional accounts study. In addition to standard performance indicators such as Gross Regional Domestic Product in the base year, the SAM provides a basis for analysing the relative importance of different sectors in the economy, as well as the pattern of trade, household income and expenditure patterns, and transfer payments.

4.2     Gross Regional Domestic Product and Expenditure

4.2.1             Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is a measure of the total economic activity within a region, and corresponds to GDP at national level. It represents the sum of all value added earned by the production of goods and services within a certain territory over a certain period of time, where value added is defined as income less intermediate costs. Per capita GRDP is often used as an indicator of economic welfare of a region, with comparisons of GRDP across regions indicating different living standards. Over time, changes in GRDP will indicate the extent to which an economy has been either growing or declining although, unless expressed in constant prices, changes also reflect the effects of inflation. GDP is measured in the SAM at basic prices (that is net of taxes on expenditure less subsidies) it is thus equivalent to the Gross Value Added measures of economic performance produced on a regional basis by the ONS. 

4.2.2             Table 4.1 presents the estimation of the Western Isles GRDP derived from the 2003 regional SAM. Two approaches to measuring GRDP are given: the expenditure measure and the income measure. In accordance with the accounting identities inherent to the economy, both approaches produce the same value for GRDP, £263 million (£263m). Since the total resident population of the Western Isles on 30 June 2003 was 26,100 (General Register Office for Scotland, 2005), GDRP per head in that year is estimated at £10,078. 

Table 4.1Western Isles Gross Regional Domestic Product, 2003

Western Isles Gross Regional Domestic Product, 2003

Expenditure Approach

Source in SAM

£’000

Household expenditure

Note 1

200,349

+ Local government expenditure

Note 2

86,588

+ Central government expenditure

Note 3

96,135

+ Gross fixed capital formation

column sum

34,179

+ Change in the value of stocks

column sum

-22

+ Tourist expenditure

column sum

41,084

+ Exports

Note 4

133,910

- Imports

sum of row totals

297,308

- Net taxes & subsidies on expenditure (indirect taxes)

 

31,883

= GRDP at factor cost

 

263,032

 

 

 

Income Approach

 

£’000

Income from employment

row sum

218,315

+ gross profits and other trading income

row sum

44,717

= GRDP at factor cost

 

263,032

 

 

 

= GRDP per head (£)

(population 26, 100)

10,078

 

Notes:

1.       Household expenditure on Western Isles goods and services (£81,937k) plus expenditure on imports (£100,089k) plus indirect (expenditure) taxes (£18,323).

2.       Local government income (£91,181k) less internal transfers (£1,238k) and surplus (in capital account) (£3,355k).

3.       Central government transfers for public services (£81,864k) plus expenditure on Western Isles goods and services (£9,679k) plus expenditure on imports (£4,593k).

4.       Sum of column totals for (all) exports (£141,662) less transfers to households from out-with the region (£7,752k)

 

4.2.3             Table 4.2 shows how the total and per head estimates of Western Isles GRDP in 2003 compares with those found in other regions. Western Isles GRDP per head in 2003 is estimated at 66% of the equivalent UK GDP per head of £16,383 and 78% of the EU-25 average. It is also lower than that estimated for the whole Highlands and Islands area from the most recent ONS statistics.

Table 4.2         Western Isles GRDP compared with estimates for other regions

Western Isles GRDP compared with estimates for other regions

Region

 

Source

Year of data

GRDP/

GRVA (£m)

GRDP/GVA per head (£)

GDP/

GVA per head Indices (UK=100)

Western Isles

2003 Regional SAM

2003

263

10,078

66

Highlands and Islands

 ONS, 2004

2003

3,874

10,524

69

Scotland

 ONS, 2004

2003

77,929

15,409

96

UK

 ONS, 2004

2003

976,148

16,383

100

EU - 25

Eurostat *

2003

-

-

       84

 Notes:  EU-25 Index is based on an estimated value of UK GDP per capita in PPS.  The GVA per head indices published by the ONS relate the regional estimates to UK GVA after having allowed for the compensation of employees and gross operating surplus which cannot be assigned to regions. Thus the indices are (slightly) higher than a comparison of the GVA values would suggest. The Western Isles index is calculated relative to the Highlands and Islands index value on the basis that no additional adjustment is required at this geographical scale.

4.2.4             Table 4.3 compares the estimated GRDP from the 2003 SAM to the most recent estimates of regional GVA produced by the ONS which relates to calendar year 2002.  The SAM estimate is slightly (2%) lower that the updated the ONS estimate for 2003[1] but the two are much closer than was the case for the previous 1997 study[2].

Table 4.3         Alternative estimates of Western Isles GRDP

Alternative estimates of Western Isles GRDP

Source

Year

GRDP (£m)

GDP per head (£)

Regional SAM  (this report)

2003

263

10,078

 

Regional Gross Value Added (ONS, 2004)

2002

261

9,961

Inflated ONS 2004 estimate

2003

269

10,250

 

4.2.5             In relation to changes over time, the estimate of GRDP from the 2003 SAM is higher than that from the 1997 study of the region as shown in Table 4.4. Allowing for price inflation equal to that experienced in the UK as a whole[3], the updated 1997 study would estimate a Western Isles GRDP of £256.5m, compared to the £263m figure found in the current study. However the implied real growth in the economy over the six year period of 2.5% is considerably less than that experienced in the UK as a whole.

Table 4.4        Composition of Western Isles GRDP, 1997 and 2003

Composition of Western Isles GRDP, 1997 and 2003

 

1997 regional accounts (£’000)

Updated to 2003 at UK rates

 (£’000)

Shares of GRDP (%)

2003 regional accounts (£’000)

Shares of GRDP (%)

   Household expenditure

167770

194,721

75.9

200,349

76.2

+ Local government expenditure

68149

79,097

30.8

86,588

32.9

+ Central govt. expenditure

50152

58,209

22.7

96,135

36.5

+ Gross fixed capital formation

23187

26,912

10.5

34,179

13.0

+ Change in the value of stocks

-67

-78

0.0

-22

0.0

+ Tourist expenditure

31715

36,810

14.3

41,084

15.6

+ Exports

122222

141,856

55.3

133,910

50.9

- Imports

220211

255,587

99.6

297,308

113.0

- Net taxes on expenditure

21893

25,410

9.9

31,883

12.1

= GRDP

221023

256,529

100.0

263,032

100.0

 

4.2.6             Table 4.4 also shows how the components of GRDP have changed between 1997 and 2003. The previous regional accounts study highlighted the growing significance of tourism for the economy and Table 4.4 confirms that this trend has been continued with tourism contributing 15.6% to GRDP as compared to 14.3% in 1997 and only 4% in 1988/89. The economy appears to have become more reliant on local and central government funded activity with the latter increasing significantly from its 1997 level. Dependence on imports has also increased suggesting the economy has become more open to economic influences outside its territory.

4.2.7             Table 4.5 focuses on real changes in per capita GRDP while, for comparative purposes, Table 4.6 shows the growth rates observed in other regions. The relatively strong growth rate in per capita GRDP in the region is primarily due to a fall in population.  If the population had remained at 1997 levels (28,240), per capita GRDP would hardly have changed at all in real terms.  However, given the population decline, the growth rate is far better than that observed in Orkney or the Shetlands and in the Highlands and Islands as a whole although it remains lower than growth rates in the UK over the period.

Table 4.5 Changes in per capita GRDP, 1997 and 2003

Changes in per capita GRDP, 1997 and 2003

 

1997 regional accounts (£’000)

Updated to 2003 at UK rates (£’000)

2003 regional accounts (£’000)

 % change in real terms

Total GRDP (£’000)

221,023

256,529

263,032

2.54

Population base (no.)

28,240

-

26,100

-

GRDP per head (£)

7,827

9,084

10,078

10.94

 

Table 4.6 The Western Isles (and Other Regions) Changes in Gross Value Added (GVA) per head, 1997 to 2003

Changes in Gross Value Added (GVA) per head, 1997 to 2003

 

GVA per head at current basic prices

% change in real terms

 

1997

2003

Western Isles (2003)

7,827

10,078

10.94

Orkney Islands (2002)

10,966

10,716

-13.37

Shetland Islands (2002)

11,701

13,197

-0.01

Highlands and Islands

8,743

10,524

3.71

Scotland

11,980

15,409

10.82

UK

12,339

16,383

14.40

Source:  Regional Gross Value Added, ONS, December 2004.

 

 

4.2.8 An alternative indicator of economic welfare (or standard of living) in a region is the Gross Regional Domestic Expenditure (GRDE) measure. Whilst GRDP focuses on the value of economic activity within the region, GRDE is a measure of the value of expenditure of domestic residents, regardless of the source of goods and services. Table 4.7 indicates that the 2003 regional accounts estimate of total GRDE is £385.3m or £14,764 per capita. This is substantially higher than per capita GRDP reflecting the fact that there is a substantial trade deficit.

Table 4.7 Western Isles Gross Regional Domestic Expenditure, 2003

Western Isles Gross Regional Domestic Expenditure, 2003

 

£’000

GDRP

263,032

+ Imports

297,308

- Exports

133,910

- Tourist expenditure

41,084

GDRE

385,345

Population

26,100

GDRE per head (£)

14,764

 

4.2.9 Table 4.8 shows how the various different contributions to GRDE have changed between 1997 and 2003. As noted above, imports have grown in importance to the economy and exports have fallen.  Income from tourist has increased by nearly 12% in real terms. However, as in the case of per capita GDRP, one of the major contributory factors accounting for the 25% growth rate of per capita GRDE over the period is the fall in population in the region.

 

Table 4.8 Changes in the contributions to GRDE, 1997 and 2003

Changes in the contributions to GRDE, 1997 and 2003

 

1997 regional accounts (£’000)

Updated to 2003 at UK rates (£’000)

2003 regional accounts (£’000)

 % change in real terms

GDRP

221,023

256,529

263,032

2.53

+ Imports

220,211

255,587

297,308

16.32

- Exports

122,222

141,856

133,910

-5.60

- Tourist expenditure

31,715

36,810

41,084

11.61

GDRE

287,297

333,450

385,345

15.56

Population

28,240

-

26,100

-

GDRE per head

£10,173

£11,807

£14,764

25.04

Note: Updated per capita GDRE (second column) is the 1997 value adjusted to allow for inflation in the economy.  It is based on the assumption that the population remains at the 1997 level which in the previous study was taken as 28,240. 

4.3     Sectoral Analysis

4.3.1             Table 4.9 shows the sectoral contributions to Western Isles employment, value-added and output in 2003. In terms of estimated FTE employment, the five most important sectors were: Other Services (private), Construction, Distribution (i.e. retailing and most wholesaling), Health and Education. Together, these five sectors accounted for 50.5% of total Western Isles employment in terms of FTE jobs. The five most important sectors in terms of generating value added (i.e. earnings in terms of wages, profits, etc.) were Distribution (12.5% of total Western Isles GRDP), Other Public Services (10.6%), Education, Health and Other Private services. In aggregate these five sectors contributed 47.3% to total Western Isles value added.  This is less than the top five sectors accounted for in 1997, which suggests the economy has become more diverse in structure.

4.3.2             The changing production structure of the economy is illustrated in Table 4.10 which compares the employment contribution of each sector in 1997 with that found in 2003 and the value added composition for 1997 and 2003. To facilitate comparison, the number of sectors is reduced to thirteen.

4.3.3             The substantial estimated drop in Agriculture, Fishing and Fish Farming employment is due in part to an overestimate of self employment in agriculture in the 1997 study.[4]  However it also reflects the downturn that has occurred in the aquaculture sector since the end of the 1990s. Apart from this, there are various other important changes in employment structure in the region (see for example, transport), the magnitude of which is surprising given the relatively short period between studies.


Table 4.9         Sectoral contributions to employment, value added and output,

Western Isles 2003

Sectoral contributions to employment, value added and output

 

Sector

Employment

%

Value Added

%

Output

%

 

 

(FTE jobs)

 

(£’000)

 

(£’000)

 

1

Agriculture

164

1.7

1080

0.4

10998

2.2

2,3,5

Sea fishing

339

3.4

3135

1.2

9218

1.8

4

Fish farming

287

2.9

19541

7.4

30888

6.1

6

Electricity, gas, water

104

1.1

1720

0.7

4924

1.0

7

Extraction (of ores, etc.)

123

1.2

2793

1.1

3978

0.8

8

Textiles

320

3.2

3464

1.3

8622

1.7

9

Pottery and jewellery

26

0.3

423

0.2

882

0.2

10

Food and drink manufacturing

14

0.1

174

0.1

450

0.1

11

Fish processing, wholesaling, etc.

276

2.8

12360

4.7

19908

3.9

12

Other manufacturing

338

3.4

4725

1.8

8415

1.7

13

Construction

1183

11.9

18641

7.1

39916

7.8

14

Distribution

1092

11.0

32784

12.5

55235

10.8

15

Hotels

242

2.4

5751

2.2

11369

2.2

16

Other accommodation

36

0.4

428

0.2

1910

0.4

17

Catering

228

2.3

5470

2.1

6467

1.3

18

Land transport

293

3.0

17002

6.5

25098

4.9

19

Air transport

78

0.8

3350

1.3

6258

1.2

20

Sea transport

297

3.0

8101

3.1

14730

2.9

21

IT services & telecommunications

204

2.1

9037

3.4

13223

2.6

22

Banking and insurance

136

1.4

3384

1.3

13499

2.6

23

Media

45

0.5

965

0.4

2385

0.5

24

Education

741

7.5

22584

8.6

45369

8.9

25

Health

797

8.0

21116

8.0

27287

5.4

27

Other public services

689

7.0

27798

10.6

120933

23.7

28

Other services

1194

12.0

20148

7.7

20696

4.1

29

Public administration

660

6.7

7169

2.7

7169

1.4

 

Total

9908

100

263127

100

509826

100

Note: Total Value Added includes payments to central government employees residing in the Western Isles (£9,984 thousand).

Note:  Figures may not exactly add to totals due to rounding.

Table 4.10       Sectoral contribution employment and value-added, Western Isles,

1997 and 2003

Sectoral contribution employment and value-added, Western Isles

 

% employment

% value added

Sector

1997

2003

1997

2003

Agriculture, Fishing and Fish Farming

16.8

8.0

12.5

9.0

Electricity, gas, water

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.7

Extraction (of ores, etc.)

1.3

1.2

1.8

1.1

Textiles, pottery and jewellery

4.7

3.5

1.8

1.5

Food and fish processing

2.9

2.9

3.6

4.8

Other manufacturing

3.4

3.4

2.0

1.8

Construction

8.9

11.9

8.2

7.1

Distribution

11.6

11.0

11.7

12.5

Hotels and catering

6.5

5.1

3.7

4.4

Transport

3.6

6.7

7.4

10.8

Banking and insurance

1.8

1.4

1.6

1.3

Private services

9.1

14.6

8.9

11.5

Public services

28.2

29.1

35.8

29.9

Total

100

100.0

100.0

100.0

Note:  Figures may not exactly add to totals due to rounding.

 

4.3.4             The absence of oil-related construction businesses in the 2003 SAM helps to explain changes in the position of the construction sector (showing an increased percentage of employment but decreased value added).  Such businesses tended to pay higher wages than other construction sector businesses thus inflating the value added contributions of the sector[5]

4.3.5             Figures 4.1 and 4.2 show, in graphical terms the importance of difference sectors to employment and value-added (based on columns 2 and 4 of Table 4.7).  Although similar, there are some differences between the pie charts reflecting differences in the wages and profit levels in each sector in 2003.

4.3.6        Based on the balanced 2003 employment matrix, Figure 4.3 shows how the occupational structure of employment varies between sectors. The textiles sector is shown to have the greatest reliance on skilled trades. Pottery, jewellery and agriculture have the greatest proportion of the workforce as mangers (reflecting the dominance of self employment in these sectors). The public sectors particularly, all have high proportions of employees in SOC classes 2 and to 3 (professionals and associated professional).

Figure 4.1 Sectoral employment contributions, Western Isles 2003

Sectoral employment contributions, Western Isles 2003

Figure 4.2 Sectoral value added contributions, Western Isles, 2003

Sectoral value added contributions, Western Isles, 2003

Figure 4.3 Employment type by sector, 2003

Employment type by sector, 2003

4.4 The Household Sector

Income

 

4.4.1             The total income of the three household groups in the 2003 SAM is estimated to be £305.042m. The value of total household income differs from the total value-added payments from local businesses for two reasons. First, the recipients of factor earnings from production activity are not necessarily households who reside in the area. For example, some earnings from employment are paid to non-Western Isles residents; gross profits may flow from the region, and employers’ contributions to National Insurance are paid to central government. Secondly, households may receive income from sources other than local industries: for example investment income; social security payments and pensions. In the case of the Western Isles, the value of income earned from sources other than local production activities substantially exceeds the value-added payments flowing from the region. As a result the average per capita income in the Western Isles compares more favourably with other regions than per capita GRDP.

4.4.2             Table 4.11 indicates the relative importance of different types of income for Western Isles households. Importantly, the figures shown relate to the income of the household as a whole rather than individuals.

Table 4.11 Sources of income by household type, Western Isles 2003

Sources of income by household type, Western Isles 2003

 

 

Household Type

 

 

 

 

 

Adults, no children

(£)

%

Adults with children

(£)

%

Retiree households

(£)

%

All Western Isles Households

(£)

%

Wages and salaries

18,865

84

23,411

78

167

1

15,215

70

Self employment

813

4

4,200

14

617

5

1,665

8

Investments

128

1

118

0

650

5

261

1

Annuities and Pensions

1,110

5

94

0

9,888

84

3,122

14

Social Sec. benefits

1,258

6

2,177

7

512

4

1,309

6

Other sources

325

1

0

0

0

0

154

1

Total

 

22,500

100

30,000

100

11,833

100

21,726

100

Source: Western Isles Household Survey and Family Spending (ONS, 2005)

Note: Figures may not exactly add to totals due to rounding.

4.4.3             As anticipated there are large differences in the sources of income for each of the three household types. By far the most important source of income for retiree households is pension income (84%) while wages and salaries constitute the most important income source for both of the other household types. Households with children are more likely (on average) to rely on income from self-employment than households with no dependants.

4.4.4             Table 4.12 shows how the income sources of Western Isles households compares to that in Scotland and the UK.  The overall patterns are relatively similar apart from relative dependence on pension and social security income.  The former appears to be relatively more important in the Western Isles, reflecting the ageing population structure of the region.  It is possible however that social security income was under-reported due to the sensitivity of such payments.

Table 4.12       Comparison of income sources by region, 2003

Comparison of income sources by region, 2003

 

 

All Households

Western Isles

(£)

%

Scotland

(£)

%

UK

(£)

%

Wages and salaries

15,215

70

17,683

69

19,420

68

Self employment

1,665

8

1,299

5

2,328

8

Investments

261

1

510

2

852

3

Annuities and Pensions

3,122

14

1,835

7

2,016

7

Social Sec. benefits

1,309

6

3,644

14

3,492

12

Other sources

154

1

510

2

284

1

Total

 

21,726

100

25,480

100

28,392

100

Source: Western Isles Household Survey and Family Spending (ONS, 2005)

Note: Figures may not exactly add to totals due to rounding.

4.4.5             Table 4.13 indicates that the relative importance of the different sources of household income within the Western Isles has changed quite considerably between 1997 and 2003.  In part this is due to changes in the population structure, with relatively more households with no dependents.  However, it does suggest that self employment income is less important than previously.  The implications of changes in the demographic structure of the region for multiplier and impact analyses are considered in Chapter 6 of the report.

 

Table 4.13       Comparison of income sources of Western Isles

                        Households, 1997 and 2003

 

 

 

Percentage of total income

All Western Isles households

 

 

 

1997

2003

Wages and salaries

54

70

Self employment

18

8

Investments

3

1

Annuities and pensions

17

14

Social security benefits

7

6

Other sources

1

1

Total

 

100

100

Source:  Western Isles Household Survey and Roberts et al., 1999.

Expenditure

4.4.6             Table 4.14 contrasts the level and pattern of weekly expenditure of Western Isles households with that of average Scottish and UK household expenditure patterns. A much higher percentage of expenditure is spent on necessities; in particular food and drink, heating, fuel and light: while far less is spent by Western Isles households on recreation and cultural activities. The pattern of relative prices faced by households in the Western Isles is different from that faced by their mainland counterparts (Mackay Consultants, 1998), which partly explains the differential patterns of expenditure in the table although different consumption preferences may also be an important factor.   The table shows clearly how the different types of households within the SAM have very different expenditure patterns, justifying their separate treatment within the accounts. 

 

 

 

Table 4.14       Level and pattern of weekly expenditure (£) by household group, Western Isles 2003

 

Household group

 

 

Expenditure item

Adults, no children

(£)

%

Adults with children

(£)

%

Retiree households

(£)

%

UK

%

Transport

84.9

23

74.9

19

22.4

11

60.7

15

Recreation and Culture

10.1

3

9.3

2

4.8

2

57.3

14

Food and non alcoholic drink

76.8

21

103.4

26

56.3

26

43.5

10

Housing, fuel and power

44.8

12

63.3

16

52.5

25

39

9

Restaurants and hotels

12.6

3

8.6

2

5.2

2

34.9

8

Misc. goods and services

7.7

2

8.2

2

5.4

3

33.6

8

Household goods and services

23.1

6

23.5

6

17.1

8

31.3

7

Clothing and Footwear

29.9

8

21.9

6

9.9

5

22.7

5

Alcoholic drink and tobacco

10.1

3

11.6

3

4.9

2

11.7

3

Communication

9.9

3

13.4

3

8.2

4

11.2

3

Education

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.0

0

5.2

1

Health

0.1

0

0.0

0

0.9

0

5

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other expenditure items

53.1

15

59.1

15

25.0

12

61.9

15

Total

363.1

100

397.1

100

212.8

100

418

100

Source: Western Isles Household Survey and Expenditure and Food Survey, 2003-04. (ONS)

Note: Other expenditure items include mortgage interest payments, council tax and water rates.

Note: Figures may not exactly add to totals due to rounding.

4.5     Trade

4.5.1             As indicated in Table 4.1 on page 26, the estimated value of imports into the region in 2003 was £297.3m. This represents a 16% increase in imports real terms from 1997 levels. In contrast, the value of exports from the Western Isles in 2003 is estimated at £133.9m, a fall in real terms of 5.6% from 1997 levels. Thus the trade deficit of the region has increased in magnitude to £163.4m. Table 4.15 shows each sector’s contribution to the Western Isles balance of trade.


Table 4.15       Sectoral contributions to Western Isles balance of trade, 2003

Sectoral contributions to Western Isles balance of trade

 

Sector

Exports

%

Imports

%

Trade Balance (£’000)

(£’000)

(£’000)

4

Fish farming

30,667

22.9

5,586

1.9

25,081

11

Fish processing, preserve and wholesale

19,620

14.7

1,326

0.4

18,293

18

Land transport

18,579

13.9

4,862

1.6

13,717

13

Construction

24,989

18.7

12,197

4.1

12,791

28

Other services

4,718

3.5

30

0.0

4,688

8

Textiles

6,904

5.2

2,366

0.8

4,537

12

other man

4,583

3.4

2,395

0.8

2,188

21

IT services and telecommunications

2,501

1.9

575

0.2

1,926

23

Media

1,429

1.1

197

0.1

1,232

14

Distribution

16,354

12.2

15,171

5.1

1,183

2,3,5

Sea fishing

1,535

1.1

1,199

0.4

335

9

Pottery and jewellery

390

0.3

299

0.1

91

29

Public admin

0

0

0

0

0

10

food

42

0.0

49

0.0

-7

7

Extraction of ores, etc

0

0.0

85

0.0

-85

16

Other accommodation

0

0.0

129

0.0

-129

17

Catering

0

0.0

435

0.1

-435

19

Air transport

0

0.0

812

0.3

-812

6

Electricity, gas, water

0

0.0

1,656

0.6

-1,656

15

Hotels

383

0.3

2,385

0.8

-2,002

25

Health

0

0.0

4,051

1.4

-4,051

20

Sea transport

0

0.0

4,388

1.5

-4,388

1

Agriculture

1,212

0.9

5,776

1.9

-4,564

22

Banking and Insurance

0

0.0

9,100

3.1

-9,100

24

Education

5

0.0

18,160

6.1

-18,155

27

Other public services

0

0.0

69,919

23.5

-69,919

 

Other final demand

-

0

34,070

11.5

-34,070

 

Households

-

0

100,089

33.7

-100,089

 

Total

133,910

100

297,308

100

-163,398

 

4.5.2             Although down in both absolute and percentage terms from 1997, the fish farming sector contributes most to the overall trade balance, exporting goods valued at £30.7m and importing only £5.6m of in-ports.  Fish processing follows, with exports of £19.6m and imports at £1.3m, i.e. a positive trade balance contribution of £18.3m. The land transport and construction sectors have positive contributions of £13.7m and £12.8m respectively.

4.5.3             As in the 1997 study, by far the largest proportion of the trade deficit is related to household expenditure on imported goods and services, either directly (for example, by Western Isles households purchasing goods and services outside the Western Isles or by mail order etc) or as a result of the high import content of household expenditures made within the Western Isles. Importantly, household expenditure on imports appears to have increased by nearly 21% in real terms.  This suggests the economy’s ability to retain the benefits from any increase in local production activity may be less than in 1997 since increases in local incomes will largely be leaked through household expenditure on non-local goods and services.

4.5.4             Figure 4.4 indicates the extent to which the export performance of sectors in the Western Isles varied between 1997 and 2003. While exports of goods from the private service sector in the region increased by more than 80% in real terms over the period, exports from the sea fish industry in the region are estimated to have fallen by 47% over the same period in real terms.

Figure 4.4       Percentage change in the real value of exports 1997 - 2003 by sector.

Percentage change in the real value of exports 1997 - 2003 by sector

4.5.5             Finally although not explicit in the preceding tables and figure, it should again be noted that the value of tourism (another form of export income for the region) has increased in significance for the Western Isles economy.   The Total value of tourism estimated for 2003 is £41,084 m, an increase of almost 12% in real terms from the 1997 level.  

 



[1] The treasury GDP deflators published on March 2005 were used to allow for inflation between 2003 and 2003.

[2] The ONS estimates used in this comparison are those published in December 2004, following the downwards revisions made to all previous ONS estimates published prior to April 2004.

[3] Based on the GDP deflators as given in March 2005, 2003/04 prices are 16.06% higher than 1997/98 prices.

[4] The 1997 study had to rely on information from a consultancy report on the number self-employed by sector.  In hindsight it appears that the FTE figures estimated for agriculture were too high, perhaps due to a mis- classification of crofters. The 2003 figures are more accurate being based in the first instance on Population Census estimates of self employment figures at sector level. 

[5] Lewis Offshore closed shortly after the 1997 accounts were finalised.

 

 

 

 

 

Page Last Modified : 21/05/2012 13:35:59