Factfile - Population
Population Projections
Using the 2008 population estimate (26,200) as a base and taking into account key assumptions (mortality, fertility and migration); National Records of Scotland (NRS) predict that the total population of the Outer Hebrides is projected to fall to 25,136 by 2033. This is a projected decline of 4.1% or 1,064 people between 2008 and 2033. The equivalent figure for Scotland over the same time period is an increase of 7.3%.
The Outer Hebrides is projected to see a large percentage decline in annual births between 2008 and 2033 at -23%. Births are set to fall from 261 in 2008/09 to 201 in 2032/33. In Scotland the percentage increase in annual births is 10%.
Projections
Scotland: The 2008-based projections show the total population of Scotland will increase from 5.17 million in 2008 to 5.35 million by 2018. Longer term projections show that Scotland’s population will reach 5.54 million in 2033, an increase of 7% over the 25 year period. The population is now expected to reach 5.25 million (highest ever population in 1974) as early as 2012. The estimated population in 2078 is projected to be over 5.5 million. Along with the projected rise in population is the projected increase in the number of people of pensionable age. It is estimated to increase by 31% by 2033 in comparison to 2008.
Local Authority Administrative Areas: The populations of 19 of the 32 council areas in Scotland are projected to increase, with the remaining 13 set to decrease by 2033. The local authority with the sharpest projected population decline from 2008-2033 is Inverclyde with a drop of -17.5%. In general, most council’s adjacent, or close to, Edinburgh City and Aberdeen City are projected to increase in size, whereas most other large urban centres are projected to decline: Glasgow City; and Dundee City.
Highlands and Islands: Over the period, the Shetland Islands are expected to see a -7.5% decline; Orkney a 12.1% increase; and Highland a 17.6% increase. The table below shows the percentage change of broad age groups by key comparable areas.
Key Comparator Areas (Percentage Change between: 2008-2033)
| Overall Population | Children | Working Age | Pensionable Age | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shetland -7.5% |
Shetland -32.5% |
Shetland -18.5% |
Shetland +52.2% |
| 2 | Argyll and Bute -5.7% | Outer Hebrides -17.4% |
Argyll and Bute -14.1% | Orkney +50.7% |
| 3 | Outer Hebrides -4.1% | Argyll and Bute -13.7% | Outer Hebrides -11.7% | Highland +50.3% |
| 4 | Dumfries & G -1.0% | Dumfries & G -8.1% |
Dumfries & G -10.8% | Moray +35.7% |
| 5 | Moray +2.9% |
Moray -6.3% |
Moray -6% |
Dumfries & G +26.3% |
| 6 | Orkney +12.1% |
Orkney -1.2% |
Orkney +1.5% |
Outer Hebrides +23.6% |
| 7 | Highland +17.6% |
Highland +7.6% |
Highland +8.8% |
Argyll and Bute +19.7% |
Outer Hebrides: In summary, the projections indicate:
- a 23% decline in the number of annual births from 261 in 2008/09 to 201 in 2032/33;
- a 4.1% decline in population from 26,200 in 2008 to 25,136 by 2033 (a loss of 1,064), the ninth largest percentage decline in Scotland;
- In the Outer Hebrides the projected population decline is due to more deaths than births (negative natural change) despite positive net in-migration over the period.
The key factor in population decline in the Outer Hebrides according to the projections is therefore natural change. Within this context, significant changes in the age structure of the Outer Hebrides population are also projected:
- 0-15 yrs: Nationally, the number of children is projected to fall by 1.5% by 2033. The largest percentage decline in this age group is no longer projected to occur in the Outer Hebrides but in Shetland with a fall of 32.5%. The Outer Hebrides is projected to decline by -17.4% and Orkney -1.2%;
- Working Age: The working age population is projected to increase in 15 council areas from 2008-2033 but increase nationally only by 2.2% over the period. Inverclyde is projected to be the area with the greatest decline in this age group at -26.3%, while the Outer Hebrides are eight at -11.7%;
- Pensionable Age: The population of pensionable age is projected to increase by 2033 in all council areas and will increase nationally by 31.4%. Aberdeenshire will have the highest increase at 64.9% followed by: West Lothian (59.5%); and Shetland (52.2%). The Outer Hebrides is projected to see a 23.6% increase in this age group from 2008 to 2033; this decline is below the national average (and 24 other local authorities areas) but this is mainly due to the fact that we already have a significantly higher proportion of our population in older age groups (24%), as does South Ayrshire (24%), Dumfries and Galloway and Argyll and Bute (both 25%).
The projections have been calculated using the principal migration variant, but if a high migration variant was applied, there would be a difference of 2% giving the Outer Hebrides a final population of 26,669 by 2033 – a figure higher than the current population. This demonstrates how important continued and increased in-migration (particularly the young & economically active) is to the stability of our population. See our Outer Hebrides Migration Study for further info.
By 2031, the populations of most council areas in Scotland are projected to be higher under the 2008-based projection than under the 2006-based projection. There are seven exceptions (Argyll & Bute, Stirling, East Renfrewshire, Orkney, Fife, Inverclyde, and North Ayrshire).
The biggest percentage increases between the two sets of projections (2006 and 2008 based) are for Aberdeen City, Clackmannshire and East Lothian. These changes have come about because of the different starting point in 2008 mid year estimates and changes to the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions.
An explanation of the projection process and assumptions used for Scotland and Local Authority Areas can be found on the NRS website.
Caution
Projections are trend based and therefore envisage conditions in the future based on what currently occurs. Issues such as migration and natural change must be factored into these calculations and this brings with it considerable uncertainty. The GROS stress the limits of projections, as a rule, the smaller the population and the further forward from the base year used, the more unreliable the projection, particularly due to the effect of migration. Fundamentally, official projections don’t take account of policies or initiatives that can, and are sometimes specifically designed to, have an impact on populations and demographics.
Source: National Records of Scotland (NRS), 2008 based population projections
