Population Projections
Using 2018 as a base and taking into account key assumptions (mortality, fertility and migration); National Records of Scotland (NRS) (Opens in a new window or downloads a file)predict that the total population of the Outer Hebrides is projected to fall to 22,709 by 2043. This is a projected decline of 16% or 4,021 people between 2018 and 2043. The equivalent figure for Scotland over the same time period is an increase of 2.5%.
Figure 1: Projected Population Change by Age Group for the Outer Hebrides, 2018 and 2028
Projections
Scotland: The 2018-based projections show the total population of Scotland will increase from 5,44 million in 2018 to 5,54 million by 2043 and continue to rise into the future. Along with the projected rise in population is the projected increase in the number of people of pensionable age, which is projected to rise in almost all Council areas. Those of pensionable age and over is estimated to increase by 4% over the ten year period 2018 to 2028.
Local Authority Administrative Areas: The populations of 18 of the 32 council areas in Scotland are projected to increase, with the remaining 14 set to decrease by 2028.The local authority with the sharpest projected population decline from 2018-2028 is the Outer Hebrides with a drop of -6.1%. The number of children is expected to increase in only 3 of Scotland’s council areas. The population of working age is projected to increase in 22 council areas.
Highlands and Islands: Over the period 2018 - 2028 the Outer Hebrides will see a 6.1 % decline. The Shetland Islands are expected to see a -0.7% decrease; Orkney a 0.5% increase; and Highland a 0.5% increase. The table below shows the percentage change of broad age groups by key comparable areas.
| Overall Population | Children | *Working Age | *Pensionable Age & over |
Aged 75 and over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highland +0.5% | Shetland -9% | Highland +2% | Orkney +8% | Orkney +37% |
| Orkney +0.5% | Highland -11% | Orkney +1% | Shetland +6% | Shetland +35% |
| Shetland -0.7% | Orkney -12% | Shetland -0% | Highland +5% | Highland +34% |
| Dumfries & Galloway -2.8% | Outer Hebrides -13% | Dumfries &Galloway -1% | Dumfries &Galloway +1% | Outer Hebrides +25% |
| Argyll & Bute -5.9% | Dumfries & Galloway -14% | Argyll & Bute -5% | Outer Hebrides -1% | Dumfries & Galloway +24% |
| Outer Hebrides -6.1% | Argyll & Bute -18% | Outer Hebrides -6% | Argyll & Bute -2% | Argyll & Bute +23% |
Outer Hebrides: In summary, the projections indicate:
- a 6.1% decline in population from 26,830 in 2018 to 25,181 by 2028 (a loss of 1,649), the largest percentage decline in Scotland, along with Inverclyde
- In the Outer Hebrides the projected population decline is due to more deaths than births (negative natural change). The key factor in population decline in the Outer Hebrides according to the projections is natural change. Within this context, significant changes in the age structure of the Outer Hebrides population are also projected:
- 0-15 yrs: Nationally, the number of children 0-15 is projected to decrease by 6% by 2028. The number of children is projected to increase in only 3 of the 32 local authorities. The largest percentage decline in this age group is in Argyll and Bute by -18 and the largest increase in Midlothian (+11%);
- Working Age: The working age population is projected to increase in 22 council areas from 2018-2028 and increase nationally by 3% over the period. The Outer Hebrides is projected to have the greatest decline in this age group at -6% The greatest increase is Midlothian (+16%). The working age includes the change in state pension age for a given year.
- Pensionable Age: The population of pensionable age (taking into account the change in state retirement age) is projected to increase by 2028 in 26 council areas and will increase nationally by 4%. It is important to note that the existing age structure of the area in the base year (2018) has an impact on the age structure for future years. In 2018 Dumfries and Galloway, Argyll and Bute, South Ayrshire and the Outer Hebrides had the highest proportions of people aged 65 and over at 26%. East Lothian will have the highest increase by 2028 at 11%. The Outer Hebrides is projected to see a 1% decrease in this age group from 2018 to 2028. By 2028 the Outer Hebrides is projected to have a 25% increase in those aged 75 and over.
An explanation of the projection process and assumptions used for Scotland and Local Authority Areas can be found on the NRS website (Opens in a new window or downloads a file).
Caution
Projections are trend based and therefore envisage conditions in the future based on what currently occurs. Issues such as migration and natural change must be factored into these calculations and this brings with it considerable uncertainty. The NRS stress the limits of projections, as a rule, the smaller the population and the further forward from the base year used, the more unreliable the projection, particularly due to the effect of migration. Fundamentally, official projections don’t take account of policies or initiatives that can, and are sometimes specifically designed to, have an impact on populations and demographics.
Source: National Records of Scotland (NRS), 2016 based population projections.