The most recent mid-year population estimates (2023) for the Outer Hebrides gives a population of 26,030. This shows a decrease of 0.3% (90 persons) from mid-2022 to mid-2023.
This decrease is driven by two main components: natural change and net migration. Natural change (births minus deaths) was negative at -260. There were 164 births and 424 deaths. However, net migration (number of people moving into an area minus the number of people leaving) was positive with a total of 170.
The Outer Hebrides had the second highest percentage of those aged 65 and over at 27%, along with the Scottish Borders, Argyll and Bute, and South Ayrshire. Dumfries and Galloway had the highest at 28%. The Outer Hebrides has the second lowest percentage of those aged 16-64 at 58%, along with South Ayrshire, Scottish Borders, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire. Dumfries and Galloway had the lowest at 57%. The Outer Hebrides had the 3rd lowest percentage of children aged 0-15 at 15%, along with the City of Edinburgh and Dumfries and Galloway. Argyll and Bute had the lowest percentage at 14%. The highest figures are in areas which border the cities, with East Renfrewshire highest at 20%.
The Outer Hebrides had the highest percentage decrease from 2013 to 2023 in those aged 0-15 years, at -12%. The Outer Hebrides also had the highest percentage decrease in those aged 16-64 years over the same period at -9%. The Outer Hebrides had the 3rd lowest percentage increase in those aged 65 years and over.
Females represent 50.5% (13,153) of the population in the Outer Hebrides, while males represent 49.5% (12,877). The median age has increased to 51.29 years (Scottish median age 42.88) while the female median age is 51.98 (Scottish median 43.91) and for males 50.58 (Scottish median 41.83).
The chart above shows that the population of the Outer Hebrides has decreased by -4.8% over the ten-year period from 2013 to 2013. The population has decreased by 1,320 people from 27,350 in 2013 to 26,030 in 2023.
Age structure varies across Local Authority areas. The Outer Hebrides had the second highest percentage of those aged 65 and over, and the second lowest percentage of those aged 0-15 and third lowest of those aged 16-64. East Renfrewshire had the highest percentage of those aged 0-15 years while Glasgow had the highest percentage of those aged 16-64 years and the lowest percentage of those aged 65 and over at 14%.
Scotland’s population is ageing. An estimated 20.3% of the population were aged 65 and over, an increase from 16.1% in 2003. An estimated 16.3% were aged 0 to 15 years, a decrease from 18.7% in 2003.
The chart above shows the change in the age structure in the Outer Hebrides over the decades from mid-2003 (population 26,100) to mid-2023 (population 26,030), highlighting the growth in those aged 65 and over and the decrease in the percentage of those aged 0-15 and those aged 16 to 64. The age structure, along with the decline in population, is of concern. This changing age structure has an impact on service delivery.
It is important that the Outer Hebrides continues to see positive net migration. The chart above shows how net migration has been positive since 2021. Without this, the population of the Outer Hebrides would have decreased further due to the continuing negative natural change (births minus deaths). The gap between births and deaths (164 births and 424 deaths in 2023) is large and continues to be so, resulting in negative natural change.
Migration is the main driver in the increase in the Outer Hebrides population. Since 2021 net migration in the Outer Hebrides, within Scotland has been positive, while migration tends to always be positive within the Rest of the UK. This year, international migration was also positive, though this has not always been the case. The Outer Hebrides will need to continue attracting more people to come and stay in our Islands.
The continuing trend in the Outer Hebrides is of a decreasing population. Over the period 1901 to 2022 there has been a 43% decrease in the population. Along with that decrease, the age structure has changed so that there are less people aged 0-15 and more people aged 65 and over.
The only large town in the Outer Hebrides is Stornoway (Steòrnabhagh) with approximately 7,000 people (as at 2022 Census) in the Stornoway settlement. In 2020, almost all of Glasgow City’s and Dundee City’s population lived in a settlement (99.8% in both). In contrast, less than a third of the Outer Hebrides population lived in a settlement (29.4%). The remaining population is scattered throughout over 280 townships. Stornoway is the only settlement, which can really be described as having any 'urban' characteristics.